🔗 Share this article

Beijing has sent its maritime law enforcement through the waters of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past remote Japan's territory as China escalates strains following the Japan's leader's remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its vessels conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the latest activity come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts the island as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “unification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and people overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the current situation without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An military assault by Beijing would risk escalating into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the United States and other partner nations including Japan, which has territory just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was probably the maritime patrol, active near the territory over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, appearing to go particularly close to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said China had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted Taiwan had dispatched military assets to track the developments. The island reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from China since the Japanese official made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first occasion since 2023, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other powers, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards the island.